Research projects

Objective
By 2030, approximately 50% of the currently subsidized rental housing stock is expected to lose its purpose-specific restrictions (Zweckbindungen). Since the mid-1980s, the housing stock with rent and occupancy commitments in NRW has been reduced to less than a third of its original size, even when including new funding.

The second half of the 2000s marked the most intensive phase of expiring purpose-specific and occupancy restrictions (Zweck- und Belegungsbindungen) to date. Despite significant new funding efforts through new construction, modernization, and bond purchases or extensions, maintaining the stock at current levels is not feasible. This project aims to examine the developments that can be expected with the expiration of the commitment period and to identify the housing policy measures required in response.

At the housing market level, the study evaluates how rents for these dwellings are positioned within the local market structure and estimates potential rent increases. It also examines how housing companies, individual property owners, and local authorities respond when apartments are released from their commitments, with a particular focus on investment strategies. Additionally, the study explores the opportunities and risks for tenants and the broader impact on the local housing market. At the neighborhood level, case studies will analyze the effects of expiring restrictions on selected neighborhoods, focusing on the social and economic implications for these areas.

Approach
The project is divided into several modules, each designed to examine different levels of analysis. A central focus is the housing market level, which will be explored in greater depth using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The analysis will emphasize the perspectives and actions of key stakeholders, including housing companies, local authorities, individual owners, and tenants’ associations. At the neighborhood level, site visits and expert interviews will be conducted to assess the extent to which the expiration of the bonds impacts social stability within neighborhoods.

Results
The (preliminary) findings will be discussed in (digital) events with the participants of the empirical surveys. The results of the project will be reflected in a report as well as in various scientific publications (including in the ILS publication series).