Research projects

How can the electoral success of anti-democratic parties in certain regions be explained? The project examined the extent to which regional inequalities in living conditions and disparities in public services contribute to dissatisfaction with democracy in Germany and the electoral success of the far-right 'Alternative for Germany' (AfD) party. The results for the 400 districts and independent cities in Germany show that some indicators of public services, such as deficits in broadband access, educational opportunities, and childcare, show clear statistical correlations with high second vote shares for the AfD in the last federal election. These correlations remain stable even when controlling for the influence of other factors such as regional economic and social structure, as well as spatial differences between urban and rural areas and between eastern and western Germany. However, the results of the data-based analysis also show that the explanatory factors for the AfD's success differ significantly between eastern and western Germany. For example, objective socioeconomic factors play a much smaller role than subjectively perceived disadvantages in eastern German districts than in the west. Due to the complex interplay of a wide variety of factors, it can be concluded that investments in technical and social infrastructure can have a democracy-supporting effect, but will not be sufficient on their own to halt the loss of trust in democratic institutions and parties.

The study can be downloaded free of charge from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation website here.